Business Society, February 1: Officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) recently issued a warning at the 2008 International Cancer Congress held in Atlanta, USA, stating that by 2010 cancer will surpass cardiovascular disease as the leading cause of death worldwide. According to WHO statistics, in 2007 there were as many as 12 million newly diagnosed cancer cases globally, and over the past several years more than 7 million people have died from cancer each year.

This figure is now very close to the number of deaths from acute cardiovascular disease.

WHO officials also stated that emerging industrial nations such as China, India, Brazil, and Russia are poised to become global hotspots for lung cancer, as these countries account for more than 60% of the world’s total smoking population—smoking being a well-recognized major risk factor for lung cancer in the medical community. At the same time, cancer incidence remains persistently high in Western developed countries led by the United States. Under these circumstances, the global market for anti-tumor drugs is experiencing rapid growth.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that, over the next few years, the BRIC countries—China, India, Brazil, and Russia—will emerge as the world’s fastest-growing markets for oncology drugs; the global anticancer-drug market is expected to expand at an annual rate of 15%, significantly outpacing the growth rates of other therapeutic categories; and by 2012, total sales in the global oncology-drug market will reach approximately US$80 billion.

In fact, the global anti-cancer drug market has been growing steadily over the past few years. According to data from the U.S. consulting firm Frost & Sullivan, total global sales of anti-cancer drugs were US$24 billion in 2004, surged to US$39.6 billion in 2007, are projected to reach US$48 billion this year, and are expected to climb to US$55 billion or more by 2009. Taking anti-breast-cancer drugs as an example, total global sales are forecast to reach US$6 billion by 2012, up from just US$2.7 billion in 2002, representing an average annual growth rate of over 20%. To date, taxane-based injectable formulations—such as paclitaxel and docetaxel—are the most widely used agents in clinical practice worldwide for treating advanced breast cancer. However, prolonged high-dose administration of these taxanes has led to drug resistance and reduced therapeutic efficacy; consequently, pharmaceutical companies in Western countries such as Switzerland and the United States have developed and launched several novel monoclonal antibody–based anti-breast-cancer agents in recent years, including Herceptin and Glivec. In addition, several other promising anti-breast-cancer agents currently in clinical trials—and expected to be approved and marketed in the coming years—include epothilones, such as BMS-247550 from Bristol-Myers Squibb, EPO-906 from Merck, and Epothilone-D from Johnson & Johnson, all of which have demonstrated potent antitumor activity in clinical studies.

Over the past three decades, the United States has built the world’s largest bioengineering-based pharmaceutical industry. As a result, the number of protein- and peptide-based anticancer drugs it has developed and brought to market ranks first globally, and their sales also lead the world—examples include the monoclonal antibody–based anticancer agents Herceptin and Avastin, which achieved annual sales of US$1.6 billion and US$1.3 billion, respectively, within just a few years of launch. Reportedly, more than a dozen additional protein- and peptide-based anticancer drugs are currently in clinical trials in the United States. In addition, several U.S. pharmaceutical companies are actively developing cancer vaccines, including vaccines to prevent prostate cancer, cervical cancer caused by human papillomavirus, and viral hepatocellular carcinoma, among others. According to foreign media reports, at least two to three dozen bioengineered cancer-prevention vaccines are now under development in the United States; once these products are launched, they are expected to significantly boost global oncology drug sales.

On the international market, in addition to the two best-selling novel anticancer agents in the “cell-cycle inhibitor” class—Herceptin and Glivec—recently launched biopharmaceuticals include Revlimid for the treatment of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Abastin for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and glioblastoma multiforme, Erbitux for advanced colorectal cancer, Deforolimus for malignant sarcoma, Eloxatin for non-small cell lung cancer, and others. All of these biopharmaceutical anticancer agents are poised for substantial market growth. Industry experts predict that protein- and peptide-based biopharmaceutical anticancer drugs will become the dominant products in the global anticancer drug market over the next few years. This is because, compared with conventional chemically synthesized anticancer agents (chemotherapy drugs), protein- and peptide-based anticancer drugs exhibit fewer toxic side effects, enabling patients to adhere more consistently to the full course of treatment.

In addition to protein- and peptide-based bioengineered anticancer agents, plant-derived anticancer drugs are also poised to become a major category of dominant products in the future global anticancer pharmaceutical market. A prime example is paclitaxel injection, which has enjoyed sustained strong sales in international markets since its introduction and has now accumulated total sales exceeding US$20 billion. Beyond paclitaxel injection, the global pharmaceutical market features several other best-selling plant-derived anticancer formulations, including the camptothecin series (such as topotecan and irinotecan), the classic “vinca alkaloid” series, etoposide, as well as newly developed Chinese plant-derived anticancer agents like triptolide (from Tripterygium wilfordii), oridonin, oridonin B, oridonin C, and others. It is anticipated that, with continued intensification of research and development efforts, an increasing number of novel plant-based anticancer drugs characterized by high efficacy and low toxicity will be brought to market in the years ahead.